Street demonstrations in Bangkok by the anti-government party (UDD aka "Red Shirts") who are followers of ex-prime minister Thaksin, ousted by a coup in 2008, continue to shut down parts of the city. A week ago, clashes with police left more than 20 dead, each side blaming the other for the violence. The current prime minister (Aphisit) is backed by a coalition known commonly as PAD or "yellow shirts" (also supporters of the king) who presently are not demonstrating, but are meeting today to consider their response. They are the ones who shut down the airport last year to protest the UDD's control of parliament. Another group, known as the "online" peace group, or "no color" is now gathering strength and counter demonstrating for peaceful negotiations.
Aphisit has extended a compromise to have new elections in December, a year ahead of schedule. However, the red shirts have rejected his proposal, wanting parliament dissolved immediately, and new elections held sooner. They are angry that their party was eliminated and results of the last election nullified by the courts (The UDD had taken control of parliament). The red shirt leader (Thaksin) was found guilty of corruption and an arrest warrant issued. He continues to reside in exile, but communicate with followers.
What many people thought would be a temporary demonstration is now seemingly getting more serious and growing with sophisticated strategies countering the police initiatives to arrest the UDD leaders. Security has now been handed over to the army. No one knows what will happen. The government has lost patience with the red shirts and is pursuing blockades of their positions.
So far, there is no danger to us at all as long as we don't do something stupid like go downtown to "watch" the drama (which, amazingly, entire families do, even buying souvenir red T shirts). The U.S. embassy keeps us updated via email. Should there be more violence, it is not likely to seriously disrupt the lives of most people here. Oddly, this is a fairly common occurrence unique to Thailand, as they continue to transition fully to a democracy. Casualties are fortunately few and confined to small areas. Airports remain open, and people come and go.
No one can know what the outcome will be, but there is lots of speculation. The army could declare another coup, dissolve parliament, and set new elections. The government could back down and dissolve, and call for new elections. The red shirts could simply get tired and give up (not likely). The yellow shirts could mobilize and set up counter demonstrations, but that wouldn't help the situation at all. The word is that whatever happens, it will come to a head within a month.
We are fine, and living our lives normally as possible. Our schools are closely watching the situation, and should the need arise to cancel for the safety of the students who travel from all parts of Bangkok, they may close for a while. So far, that doesn't seem to be imminent. But of course, things can change quickly. Meanwhile, realize that things you see on TV are real, but confined to a small section of the city, and that life goes on as usual. We are in no danger. Our address may say "Bangkok," but remember that this is a province as large as Rhode Island, and we are 20 miles (30 km) away from the demonstrations.
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